Welcome back all! This week, I am going to be doing breakdowns for the Co-Main and Main event. Also as a planning note, I am currently working on a ton of breakdowns for UFC 259. I will be releasing one per day starting on the Sunday before the event!

To create the following analysis, I watched every fight of both fighters and mixed my own visual analysis with the statistical breakdowns I created for them. Statistical analytics were drawn from my Judging Model as well as my new FAST model. I will be breaking down each fighter's past high level strategy and specific fight tactics and then investigating their ratings based on their round win % as determined by the Judging Model.

First up, Yana Kunitskaya. Yana profiles as a highly technical, distance based striker. Her taekwondo background is evident and she possesses a really strong high guard. She takes a balanced approach to MMA striking, mixing punches, kicks, knees and elbows effectively. Overall, I analyzed her as a point fighter that tries to minimize damage taken while out pointing her opponents.

Yana utilizes her clinch skills as a way of nullifying opponents who enter her range and sort of has two gears: fighting at distance, picking away at her opponents with teep kicks and punches or rushing her opponents and clinching up against the cage to throw Muay Thai knees. She has shown a suspect chin in the past which leaves her vulnerable against power punches.

Ketlen Vieira on the other hand profiles as a powerful pocket fighter who tries to bridge the distance and land power shots. Both fighters showed slick judo skills which I am a huge fan of. Vieira’s strength and size advantage for the weight class at 5'8" will make it tough for Yana to clinch her up and land power knees. I believe that Ketlen will have the advantage in these exchanges which takes away one of Yana’s two main weapons.

Ketlen showed a pretty strong chin against bomb thrower Irene Aldana, getting caught a couple of times before succumbing to her power. Yana doesn’t show much power and Ketlen has a strong chin so I doubt Ketlen gets KO’d in this matchup. One of the big problems I see in Ketlen’s game going forward is she hangs her chin and wings hooks the way that Cody Garbrandt does. Higher level strikers like Aldana, Holly Holm, and of course Amanda Nunes will catch her and put her away unless she adjusts her defensive skills.

Yana’s skills as a clinch fighter show up right off the bat. She is a highly efficient fighter in this regard and her strength advantage over most fighters shows up in her efficiency scores.

Yana’s winning ways continue when looking at her opponent classes. She is most effective when fighting against striking heavy fighters but also proves to be effective against balanced fighting styles as well.

Ketlen on the other hand does not show as a very efficient fighter when going striking heavy and is more effective when she adds in her grappling skills to overpower her opponents. Yana would likely win a points fight against Ketlen if she is not able to bridge the distance and land with power or clinch up.

Overwhelmingly, fighters choose to stand and trade with Ketlen which she wins at a clip of 67%. Solid defensive efficiency from her.

Breaking it down further, Yana fights predominantly in what I am calling the Anaconda class. This is a fighter who utilizes grappling as a means of tiring out their opponents with takedowns and strong control positions. Yana wins these at a rate of 60% which is low based on my research. Her second highest class is clinch which she wins at a 100% rate.

Most of Yana’s opponents choose to fight her with lots of volume mainly focused on her head. I have noticed this as a common way to combat strong distance fighters like here so I don’t find it all that surprising.

Ketlen fights predominantly how most opponents choose to fight Yana: High output, head hunting. She is surprisingly ineffective as a striking heavy head hunter so will have to mix in her clinch work to close the distance on Yana and steal rounds from her.

Fighters choose to strike heavy with Ketlen and either take a balanced approach or head hunt. Ketlen profiles as an average striking defender in this regard.

Based on the mix of scouting and data analysis, I expect Yana to try and fight Ketlen at range whereas Ketlen is going to bull rush to cover distance and throw haymakers or clinch up. Ketlen has more paths to victory because of her power advantage over Yana. Ketlen will never be out of this fight because she always has the opportunity to pull an Aspen Ladd on Yana and knock her out with a bull rush. Yana’s strategy is a points victory where she keeps Ketlen at distance and chips away at her defenses. One thing to note, this fight is in the smaller cage in the UFC PI which is going to have a large effect on Yana’s ability to stay at distance. Ketlen’s path to victory is clinching up with Yana and throwing power knees and elbows to win a points victory or bridging the distance between the two of them and landing a power shot that puts Yana down with a KO/TKO. I project that Ketlen bridges the distance and wins on points or by knockout.